Race Time Predictors.

My main focus on this website and the research I have done was to find out how I compared to the rest of a race, and all the other runners - average them out and this gives you an average race and this is what I have tried to show. While I have been doing this, a thought kept popping into my head. If I ran a 10km race, and finished in the middle of the pack, would this mean I would finish in the middle of the pack in a marathon. Can I predict my race time from a different length race. I think that you can

When you look online there are a few methods to predict future race times. The most quoted is the 'runners world' method (the Riegel Method), but there are others. The simplest (I like simple) are the Cameron and the Reigel methods, then the Harwill method and WMA Age Grading method are next simplest. Then there is a new one coming.... the Steven Method (Well 2 methods, my simple method and my average race time method). There are detailed descriptions on the time predictor detail sheet. For now I guess you just want to predict future race time

Since I am only really looking at the 4 popular race distances (5km, 10km, half marathon and marathon) the calculations will only work for them - I haven't put the calculation in for other distances (yet?). I am making a general assumption that a 10km is half the distance of a half marathon, or is a 1/4 marathon and a 5km is 1/8 marathon

With all race predictors, do not take them as true - there is going to be some variation between the prediction and an actual race time. These are produced from analysing a lot of results and as such won't match a single individual result. Use them as a guide, tell your mates a range of times to be out of the pub to watch you pass, and then say how well you did when you are faster than predicted.

What to do
Fill in the details in the form below, and press the button. The bottom form shows the predicted times for each other methods I am using. The last line is an average of all these methods. With experience you will find one of these methods work best for you

Age: Gender: Old Distance:
Hours: Minutes: Seconds:

Enter total race time a whole numbers in each box, or decimal in one box (for example 1.5 hours in the hours box), or as large numbers (for example 90 minutes in the minutes box)

This is all based on a recent result and the runner undertaking training for the new race distance - you might not be able to run 5km one week and expect to run a marathon the next at a proportional speed

5km10kmHalf MarathonMarathon
Reigel Method
Cameron Method

Harwill Method
Steven Method 1

Age Grading Method

Age Grade

Race Average
(Parkrun ) Your gender position: Your overall position:

Average Prediction